The BBC have put up an election calculator, where you can plug in various hypothetical national votes shares for the parties and then see what the election result would be, assuming consistent swings. You can find it here:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8609989.stm

I had a play around, and managed to come up with an interesting scenario. Imagine you had the following result:

Lib Dem: 37.0%

Conservative: 28.9%

Labour: 24.1%

Other: 10%

Who would be the winner of that election? Why Labour of course! (Largest party, though not with a majority).

Labour: 215 seats

Lib Dem: 211 seats

Conservative: 195 seats

Other: 29 seats

Of course, you can also dream…

Lib Dem: 42.6.0%

Conservative: 26.3%

Labour: 21.1%

Other: 10%

Which gives:

Lib Dem: 415 seats

Labour: 106 seats

Conservative: 103 seats

Other: 26 seats

Amazing the difference 5.6% can make. And then there’s the result that might really set the cat among the pigeons of the FPTP supporting Tories:

Conservative: 35.6%

Labour: 35.3%

Lib Dem: 19.1%

Other: 10%

Which gives:

Labour: 331 seats (5 seat majority)

Conservative: 240 seats

Lib Dem: 50 seats

Other: 29 seats

So it would be possible for the Tories to get more votes than Labour, but for Labour to then not only get more seats, but actually achieve a majority. (i.e. An absolute victory).

I think if they lose they’ll cry, sack Cameron, and then tear themselves apart. But if they lose in a way where they could reasonably claim “we woz robbed”… How funny would that be? (And if you think I’m being mean, I’d ask how sympathetic they were when the Liberal Party got 19.7% of the votes in the February 1974 election, and received 14 seats in return).